What this guide is, and isn't
This isn't a system. There's no method on this page that makes sports betting profitable, and we'd be lying if we said there was. The bookmaker's margin is built into every price, and most people who bet lose over time. What this page offers is a set of habits that make betting cheaper, slower and easier to keep in proportion. If that sounds less exciting than a system that wins, that's the point.
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Bankroll
Set a betting budget you can afford to lose. Keep each bet to a small share of it.
Your bankroll is money set aside only for betting, separate from bills, savings and anything you'd miss. Decide the amount before you start, for the week or the month. Then size each bet as a small, fixed share of it. Many careful bettors use something like one to two percent per bet. The exact figure matters less than the fact that it's fixed in advance and small.
Fixed sizing does two things. It stops a single result from wrecking your budget, and it stops you from raising stakes after a loss, which is the habit that does the most damage. If the bankroll shrinks, your stakes shrink with it. If it's gone, you're done for the period. That's the system working, not failing.
Stake's deposit limit makes this stick. Set it to match your budget. Lowering a limit takes effect at once. Raising or removing one takes 24 hours, which gives you a cooling-off gap.
Prices
The same bet can have different odds at different books. Better prices don't guarantee profit, but worse ones guarantee higher cost.
Small price differences add up over many bets. Getting 2.10 instead of 2.00 on the same outcome is a 5% better return when it wins. Comparing prices is sometimes called line shopping. Inside one sportsbook, the same idea applies to markets: singles usually carry less margin than multiples, and main lines usually carry less than props and alternative lines. Our odds guide shows how to check the margin on any market.
Keep records
Keep a simple record
- Note the date, market, odds and stake.
- Note the result.
- Review monthly: total staked and total returned.
- If the numbers worry you, take a break.
Memory is kind to winners and forgets losers. A plain spreadsheet isn't. After a month or two, a record tells you how much you've staked, how much came back, and which kinds of bets cost the most. Many people find that their accumulators and live bets are where most of the money went. Stake also shows your bet history in your account, which you can use as a check.
Variance
Even good bets lose often. A run of losses isn't proof you're unlucky or that a win is due.
A bet at 2.00 that's priced fairly loses half the time. Ten in a row will lose sometimes, by pure chance. Long losing runs are normal even for bettors who make sensible picks, and long winning runs are normal for bettors who don't. That makes short-term results a poor guide to skill. It also means a winning week isn't a sign to bet bigger, and a losing week isn't a sign you're due.
Common thinking traps
| Thought | What's going on |
|---|---|
| "I'm due a win" | Each bet is independent. Past losses don't change the next result. |
| "I'll win it back" | Chasing losses raises stakes when you're least calm. |
| "I knew it" | Hindsight. Look at your records instead. |
| "This one is a lock" | No bet is certain. The price tells you the risk. |
Tipsters and systems
Be wary of anyone selling tips, systems or picks sold as certain. If a method reliably beat the market, it wouldn't be sold cheaply on social media. Common warning signs are screenshots of wins with no record of losses, pressure to join a paid group quickly, and claims of a high win rate without the odds behind it. A high win rate on short odds can still lose money.
Focus
You'll understand a league you watch every week far better than one you've never seen. Betting only on sports you follow won't beat the margin, but it makes your bets less random and your budget easier to manage. Fast products like live betting and table tennis push the other way, toward more bets on less information.
Promotions
Promotions can lower the cost of betting a little, but only if you'd have placed the bets anyway. If an offer pushes you to bet more, bet bigger or bet on things you wouldn't, it's costing you. Read the terms on Stake and our bonus page. Skipping a promotion is always fine.
When to stop
Stop for the day when you hit your budget, when you notice you're betting to feel something, or when you're tired or have been drinking. Stop for longer if betting is causing arguments, debts or secrecy. Stake has break-in-play, product exclusion and self-exclusion tools for exactly that. Gambling can be addictive, and that isn't a personal failing.
Related
See odds explained and responsible gambling. Our sportsbook hub links every sport guide.
FAQ
Do tipsters work?
Be wary of anyone promising profit.
Is matched betting allowed on Stake?
Check Stake's terms.
Should I chase losses?
No. Stop and take a break.
How much of my budget should one bet be?
A small, fixed share. Many careful bettors use one to two percent. The key is deciding before you start.